April 10, 2026

The Iran war caused major supply-side shocks to the global economy — disrupting trade through the Strait of Hormuz, spiking fuel prices, and triggering cost-push inflation. While a ceasefire has eased oil prices, the long-term damage to infrastructure, investment, and productive capacity means slower growth may persist for years.

Despite IMF warnings, the UK’s growing reliance on renewables, domestic energy production, and energy efficiency may make it more resilient to the Gulf energy shock than widely claimed.